An ABA practice assumption log records uncertain facts used in forecasts, plans, budgets, capacity models, launches, and contracts. Each assumption has source evidence, owner, decision use, range, sensitivity, validation method, due date, observed result, divergence threshold, consequence, and update. It makes estimates visible before they become staffing, payer, facility, cash, or client commitments. An assumption is not evidence simply because leaders agree with it.

Define the assumption log

Hana records assumptions at the level where a different value would change a decision. Broad optimism becomes a measurable statement about referrals, conversion, hiring time, authorization lag, attendance, utilization, collection timing, turnover, or cost. The record connects source evidence, decision authority, capacity, cash, client and workforce effects, dependencies, measures, uncertainty, actions, and proof needed for the next state.

Choose fields that support the decision

Record assumption ID and statement, plan or model, source and date, evidence quality, owner, range and base value, unit, affected decision, sensitivity, linked commitments, validation method and population, due date, divergence threshold, observed value, confidence, result state, consequence, immediate safeguard, decision reopened, revised value, communication, superseded record, recurrence, and next check.

Turn the plan into decision gates

Rank assumptions by sensitivity and reversibility. High-sensitivity inputs receive earlier tests, smaller commitments, or stronger contingency. A low-confidence payer start date cannot support a fixed client start promise. A hiring assumption can support recruiting activity while facilities, cash, supervision, and service release stay conditional. When evidence diverges, update the model and traces every affected budget, contract, schedule, milestone, and communication. Preserve the earlier value so forecast error can inform future planning.

Protect current services and required work

Before relying on an assumption, identify the staff, supervision, cash, systems, facilities, vendors, and leadership time that the forecast presumes are actually available. Planning begins with net available capacity. A proposed change cannot borrow hidden labor from documentation, supervision, incident response, client communication, payroll, payer deadlines, maintenance, or recovery.

Preserve qualified decisions and direct input

The person validating an assumption routes clinical questions to qualified clinicians and legal, payer, workforce, privacy, security, finance, and facility questions to authorized owners. Clients, families, and affected staff receive accessible ways to identify priorities, burdens, access needs, side effects, and workable alternatives. Their input is evidence, not a ceremonial signoff.

Keep versions, assumptions, and open work visible

Preserve each assumption's source, baseline, confidence, decision use, allocated resources, workflow version, test history, exceptions, defects, and unresolved questions. Forecast updates never rewrite the earlier forecast. A closed milestone can link to later validation without pretending that adoption, benefit, payer acceptance, clinical quality, or financial return has already occurred.

Build decision-grade evidence

Review the log at planning checkpoints and when leading indicators move. Highlight untested high-sensitivity assumptions, validations due, results outside range, and commitments that depend on the same uncertain input. One observation may update the estimate without proving a stable rate. Retain sample size, period, setting, exclusions, and collection method so leaders can judge comparability. If a threshold is crossed, the affected decision owner chooses the approved response and documents the new assumption, revised forecast, resource effect, client or workforce safeguard, communication, and next validation date.

A fictional example

Hana locks 30 material assumptions. Twenty-one have sources, ranges, owners, sensitivity, tests, deadlines, and linked decisions. Three use point estimates without ranges, two lack validation, two have passed deadlines, and two are no longer decision-relevant. Seven repair. Two retire with their history preserved. The scenario is synthetic. It tests scope, capacity, evidence, state, and denominator logic without establishing clinical quality, legal compliance, payer approval, staffing, funding, safety, client satisfaction, financial return, or outcome.

Calculate compatible measures

Initial assumption integrity is 21 of 30, or 70.0%. Twenty-eight validate or retire correctly, or 93.3%. Assumptions, source observations, model inputs, commitments, tests, and reopened decisions stay separate.

Control the main planning risk

Teams often validate easy assumptions while ignoring the ones that could exhaust cash or qualified capacity. The practice prioritizes by consequence and sensitivity, not convenience.

Test hard cases

Test referral volume, intake conversion, authorization lag, hiring time, staff retention, utilization, attendance, collection lag, payer rate, facility opening, vendor delivery, and assumption retirement. Each case states the source, qualified owner, affected cohort, capacity and cash effect, client and workforce safeguard, dependency, decision, evidence, validation, and next review.

Close the review with unresolved work visible

Before closing the review, confirm source currency, authority, scope, capacity, resources, dependencies, assumptions, client and workforce effects, measures, exceptions, side effects, benefit evidence, corrective work, and open decisions. The assumption log remains draft until every named reviewer completes the required review.

Place the planning method within organizational scope

Use the CASP Organizational Guidelines public overview for high-level business, clinical-operations, and risk-management context. CASP sells the detailed guidance. The public page does not prescribe this assumption log, set a planning horizon, or authorize which uncertain planning inputs need testing before leaders commit resources or promises.

Use compliance guidance within its limits

When reviewing the assumption log, treat the OIG General Compliance Program Guidance as voluntary and nonbinding. Its discussions of leadership, risk assessment, training, reporting, audits, corrective action, incentives, and oversight inform planning checks. Current law, payer, professional, workforce, privacy, finance, facility, contract, and legal sources control actual obligations.

Use business-planning sources as orientation

For broad business context around the assumption log, use the SBA Manage Your Business and Write Your Business Plan pages as orientation. They give no ABA clinical, payer, facility, workforce, tax, privacy, safety, or legal authority. Page-specific sources, qualified owners, operating evidence, and current conditions support every material commitment.

Preserve clinical authority and client involvement

For professional duties affected by the assumption log, apply the current BACB Ethics Code to covered people and professional activities. It addresses competence, responsibility, client involvement, documentation, supervision, risk, evaluation, billing, and reporting. BACB has no separate corporate jurisdiction. Plans allocate resources and request decisions without transferring qualified clinical judgment to owners or software.

Include leadership and workforce evidence

For worker participation and safety conditions in the assumption log, use OSHA's management leadership and worker participation pages as general guidance about goals, resources, accountability, reporting, participation, and response. The pages do not create a universal ABA planning model. Workers need usable routes to surface workload, access, safety, and implementation problems without retaliation.

Keep technology-risk planning scoped

For technology and information dependencies in the assumption log, the practice may adapt the NIST Cybersecurity Framework as voluntary cybersecurity risk-management guidance. It does not replace HIPAA, state law, payer contracts, clinical authority, or the broader operating plan. Cybersecurity assumptions, risks, controls, incidents, and recovery work remain visible within the portfolio rather than hidden in a separate technical backlog.

Give each material assumption a trigger

“Two hires will start by October” should identify its source, confidence, dependent decisions, owner, validation date, and the signal that makes it false or uncertain. If one offer is declined, update the assumption and reopen the affected capacity or launch gates. Keep the earlier planning version so leadership can see what changed. An assumption log is useful when it prompts a decision before the consequence arrives, not when it explains failure afterward.

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